McAlester, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

310
FXUS64 KTSA 292325
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
625 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 618 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

 - Hot, humid and dry weather persists this week. Heat advisory
   headlines are in effect today and Tuesday for portions of the
   area, and may be needed in the days following.

 - Flooding continues on main-stem rivers in northeast Oklahoma.

 - Low chances for afternoon storms in the terrain of SE OK and
   NW AR during the latter part of the week. Low storm chances
   continue with a weak front by Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

A look at GOES19 PWATs shows a drying trend over the region during
the past 24 hours, especially to our south and west upstream from
the low level flow. The model blend (NBM) and a blend of short-
term models have been handling dewpoints fairly well.
Evapotranspiration is likely still having some impact on the
dewpoints across NE OK, but this impact should be lessening in
the coming days. Will leave the current advisory for this
afternoon intact.

The lows last night were warm, even in the typical sheltered
sites. Winds are not expected to be quite as strong overnight into
Tuesday morning, but still enough to hold temps up. At this point,
the forecast will continue to lean on the warm NBM numbers.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

The trends in the deep-layer moisture and lessening impact from
soil moisture mentioned above support the gradual draw down of
dewpoints in the coming days that the models are advertising. With
forecast highs not changing much over the next couple of days, the
potential for advisory level heat over much of the forecast area
is decreasing. After crunching the numbers for Tuesday, advisory
level heat indices were forecast only in Franklin county AR in the
lower Ark River Valley. Since an advisory is in effect from a
neighboring office to our east, an advisory will be issued there
for Tuesday afternoon. Both the MOS and NBM show high temps
trending upward during the latter part of the week. Heat headlines
are likely to return if this pans out as advertised.

Our area will remain under the influence of a strong and broad
ridge of high pressure aloft over the next few days. The ridge
will weaken by the end of the week, and deep layer moisture may
increase enough from the southeast to yield low afternoon storm
chances in the terrain of SE OK and NW AR Thursday and Friday. A
weak front may make its way into the region by Sunday, yielding
some rain/storm chances that will linger into Monday.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period for all
sites. Breezy south winds will decrease overnight, but remain near
or above 10 kts much of the night. South-southwest 30-45kt LLWS
develops across E OK and NW AR sites between 03-14z. Sfc winds
increase again Tuesday morning with gusts near 20 kts during the
afternoon, especially across E OK. Otherwise, FEW to SCT high
clouds will continue to pass over the region through Tuesday,
with a period of FEW to SCT clouds near 2500-4000 ft possible
again during the morning-early afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  94  78  94 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   77  96  77  96 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   79  94  78  94 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   78  93  76  93 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   76  92  75  91 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   75  93  73  92 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   77  93  76  93 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   77  93  75  93 /   0   0   0   0
F10   77  94  76  93 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   77  93  75  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>058-060>062-
     067-070-074-176-254-272-354.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ220.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...43